Friday, August 15, 2008

Banking sector may see tough days ahead: Analysts

New Delhi, Aug 15 : After taking a hit on their bottomlines in the first quarter of this fiscal, the Indian banks are likely to remain in tough terrains in the face of the tightening macro-economic environment, analysts say.

Bottomlines of banks in the first quarter of financial year 2009 were hit by higher than expected mark-to-market (MTM) losses and lower treasury incomes, as per an earnings review of banking sector by domestic brokerage firm Sharekhan.

"Most of the banks under our coverage witnessed margin pressures during the quarter, in line with the recent rate hikes announced by the RBI. Further, a weaker treasury performance on account of the higher bond yields, the downturn in the equity markets and the high base of the last year added to the woes of banks," the Sharekhan report said.

However, the banks themselves are putting a brace face and dismiss the talks of any slowdown in the sector.

Disagreeing to the view that there is a slowdown in the banking space, Indian Bank Chairman and managing director M S Sundara Rajan said, "There is no slowdown at all. Indian Bank had a credit growth of 4,200 crore in the first quarter this year as against Rs 800 crore last year.
There is high demand from every industry including power, telecom, infrastructure, cement, sugar or composite sugar mills."

The highlight of the quarter were the MTM provisions, which significantly affected the earnings of the banks. The quarter gone by saw a significant spike in bond yields, resulting in high MTM provisions on banks' bond portfolios, the report said.

Banks with higher proportion of their investment portfolio held in the 'available for sale' category had significantly higher MTM losses during the quarter, it added Meanwhile, the report also said that the advance growth remained buoyant during the quarter, especially in the corporate segment.

On the back of a strong credit demand, most of the banks saw an improvement in the credit/deposit ratio, which led to a healthy top line performance, it added.

In its outlook for the sector, Sharekhan further said that it remains gloomy in face of the tough macro environment, at present and the balance sheet expansion is likely to moderate further considering the RBI's discomfort with the credit offtake that continues to grow at a rate higher than its targeted rate.

"Aggressive monetary tightening steps taken by the central bank coupled with the ensuing deposit rate hikes are likely to put further pressure on the margins of banks. The further firming up of the bond yields could result in additional MTM losses in the coming quarters," the Sharekhan report stated.

Asset quality ratios will be keenly watched as banks have witnessed signs of deterioration in credit quality, it added.

Besides, after a meeting with chairpersons of public sector banks, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said on Wednesday that interest rate hikes by public sector banks would not impact existing and new home loans up to Rs 30 lakhs, as also auto and education loans.

Country's largest lender SBI had reported a net profit of Rs 1,640.79 crore, an increase of 15 per cent against Rs 1,425.81 crore of the first quarter of last fiscal, despite challenging market conditions and provisioning.

Meanwhile, the largest private lender ICICI Bank was hit by sharp increase in interest rates, negative impact on treasury income and mounting bad loans with its first quarter net profit falling to Rs 728 crore, down by nearly 6 per cent, from Rs 775 crore in the year-ago quarter.

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